The future of music department: Scenarios and envisioning for 2030

The research aimed to (1) study the influencing factors that affect the future of the Western Music Department (WTMU) at Chandrakasem Rajabhat University (CRU), and (2) analyze and build the futures scenarios of the WTMU at CRU. The informants included (1) five WTMU administrators, (2) three faculty administrators, (3) three CRU administrators, (4) three employers, (5) three administrators from other higher education music institutions, (6) three experts, and (7) Documents. The research method employed deep environmental scanning and ethnographic futures research to study the influencing factors. These factors were analyzed for their impact and uncertainty, resulting in the building of four scenarios. The findings of the research revealed that: seven key factors were identified: (1) changes in state and higher education policies due to changes in the government, (2) the promotion of the National Credit Bank System policy, (3) changes in criteria and methods for determining academic position, (4) the rapid growth of demand for personnel in the entertainment and live performance industries, (5) inflation and the risk of economic recession, (6) the department’s inability to adapt to changing situations, and (7) insufficient workload for full-time instructors. The scenarios of the WTMU at CRU consisted of four scenarios: (1) continuation: 3rd generation of WTMU, CRU, (2) limits or discipline: College of Music, Rattanakosin Rajabhat University Group, (3) decline and collapse: the discharge of CRU’s vanguard, and (4) transformation: the central hub for music professionals in Bangkok.