Predictors of plasma leakage among dengue patients in Thailand: A plasma-leak score analysis

Delayed plasma leakage recognition could lead to improper fluid administration resulting in dengue shock syndrome, subsequently, multi-organ failure, and death. This prospective observational study was conducted in Bangkok, Thailand, between March 2018 and February 2020 to determine predictors of plasma leakage and develop a plasma leakage predictive score among dengue patients aged ≥15 years. Of 667 confirmed dengue patients, 318 (47.7%) developed plasma leakage, and 349 (52.3%) had no plasma leakage. Multivariate analysis showed three independent factors associated with plasma leakage, including body mass index ≥25.0 kg/m² (odds ratio [OR] = 1.784; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.040–3.057; P = 0.035), platelet count <100,000/mm³ on fever days 3 to 4 (OR = 2.151; 95% CI = 1.269–3.647; P = 0.004), and aspartate aminotransferase or alanine aminotransferase ≥100 U/l on fever days 3 to 4 (OR = 2.189; 95% CI = 1.231–3.891; P = 0.008). Because these three parameters had evidence of equality, each independent factor was weighted to give a score of 1 with a total plasma-leak score of 3. Higher scores were associated with increased plasma leakage occurrence, with ORs of 2.017 (95% CI = 1.052–3.869; P = 0.035) for score 1, 6.158 (95% CI = 2.914–13.015; P <0.001) for score 2, and 6.300 (95% CI = 2.419–16.407; P <0.001) for score 3. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for predicting plasma leakage was good (0.677 [95% CI = 0.616–0.739]). Patients with a plasma-leak score ≥1 had high sensitivity (88.8%), and those with a plasma-leak score of 3 had high specificity (93.4%) for plasma leakage occurrence. This simple and easily accessible clinical score might help physicians provide early and timely appropriate clinical dengue management in endemic areas.