Early-phase factors associated with pediatric severe dengue in the Thai–Myanmar cross-border region

Background: Dengue disease is caused by dengue virus, which is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Although most infected individuals have benign febrile illness or no apparent symptoms, a small percentage develop severe dengue, a potentially fatal condition that occurs after a febrile stage. Many studies have identified factors predicting dengue severity among different populations and time courses. To help find practical approaches applicable in remote settings, we focused on the investigation of early factors associated with severe dengue in Thai–Myanmar cross-border region. Methods: This retrospective case-control study was performed to determine factors contributing to severe dengue in the pediatric population. We reviewed the hospital records of patients with dengue infection aged 0–19 years who were admitted to Maesot General Hospital, situated near the Thai–Myanmar cross-border region, between 2017 and 2022. Medical data during the first 5 days of illness and outcomes were collected and analyzed. Results: This study included 144 patients with a serologically confirmed diagnosis of dengue infection, with 43 severe and 101 non-severe cases. Among biological factors, being an infant and belonging to an ethnic group in Myanmar showed a significant association with severe dengue in the univariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that the presence of mucosal bleeding (adjusted OR 5.39, 95% CI 1.06–27.52, P = 0.043), a change in hematocrit ≥ 10% (adjusted OR 3.68, 95% CI 1.15–11.74, P = 0.028), and serum albumin < 35 g/L (adjusted OR 8.10, 95% CI 2.55–25.72, P < 0.001) during the first 5 days of illness were significantly associated with developing severe dengue. Conclusions: This study supports the use of certain WHO warning signs and hematocrit change during febrile phase to predict pediatric severe dengue in low-resource settings. Potential factors such as very young age and ethnic groups warrant further exploration to identify risks contributing to severe dengue infection.