Assessment of renewable energy and energy efficiency plans in Thailand's industrial sector

The industrial sector is one of the main energy consuming sector in Thailand, and accounted for 36.2% of total energy consumption in 2013. The increase of population and economic growth affected energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thailand has the long-term climate plans related to energy saving and GHG mitigation in the industrial sector namely; Energy Efficiency Plan 2015 (EEP2015) and Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015 (AEDP2015). Both plans have the same periods and end at 2036. This paper analyzes the changes in GHG emissions during 2005-2036. Energy demand depends on population, gross domestic product, and fuel prices. The GHG mitigation can be evaluated by using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) under various scenarios. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario can be expressed as a frozen-scenario where new technology deployment and energy efficiency improvement are excluded. However, mitigation (MIT) scenarios are introduced by using the existing measures in the EEP2015 (MIT-EE scenario) and AEDP2015 (MIT-RE scenario). In this study, Thailand's industries are categorized into eleven categories: food and beverage, textile, wood and furniture, paper and pulp, chemical, nonmetallic, basic metal, fabricated metal, construction, mining, and other industries. Fossil fuels are the main source of GHG emission accounted for 86% of total GHG emission in this industry. GHG emission will increase from 77.6 Mt-CO_2eq in 2005 to 222.5 Mt-CO_2eq in 2036. This study found that nonmetallic industry is the major GHG emitters. Full implementation of the EEP2015 and AEDP2015 can reduce GHG emissions by 36% and 9% in 2036 under MIT-EE and MIT-RE scenarios, respectively. Such GHG reductions can be achieved from the implementation of EEP2015, due to the financial incentives for energy performance achievement and enforcement of energy standards in the designated factories.