Abdominal aorta and pelvic artery calcifications on plain radiographs may predict mortality in chronic kidney disease, hemodialysis and renal transplantation

Purpose: Vascular calcification is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and predicts poor patient outcomes. While computed tomography is the gold standard for evaluation of vascular calcification, plain radiograph offers a simpler and less costly alternative. The calcification of abdominal aorta, iliac and femoral arteries has been evaluated by plain radiograph, but the data on their outcome predictabilities are still limited. The present study investigated the role of abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) and pelvic arterial calcification (PAC) in predicting overall morality in non-dialysis CKD stages 2–5 (CKD 2–5), maintenance hemodialysis (HD) and long-term kidney transplant (KT) patients. Methods: Four hundred and nineteen patients were included. Lateral abdominal and pelvic radiographs were obtained. The degree of AAC and PAC was evaluated according to the methods described previously by Kaupplia et al. and Adragao et al. Patients were followed prospectively for 5 years. Results: AAC and PAC scores correlated well with the correlation coefficients of 0.442 for CKD 2–5, 0.438 for HD and 0.586 for KT (p < 0.001). Patients with AAC score > 6 or PAC score > 1 were older, showed higher prevalence of DM and had higher serum phosphate and PTH but lower serum albumin and eGFR. A more severe degree of AAC was associated with an increase in KT duration, whereas a more severe degree of PAC was associated with worsening kidney function and prolonged dialysis vintage. Kaplan–Meier survival curves revealed AAC score > 6 as a significant predictor of all-cause mortality in CKD 2–5 but not in HD or KT, whereas PAC score > 1 was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality in all three populations. After adjusting for age, the predictability of AAC was lost, whereas PAC remained an independent predictor of mortality in all three populations. Adjustments for cardiovascular and CKD risk factors including age, gender, BMI, DM, serum albumin, calcium and phosphate attenuated the predictability of PAC in HD but not in CKD 2–5 or KT patients. Conclusion: PAC was better than AAC in predicting mortality in CKD, HD and KT patients.